Storage Capacity Configuration to Improve Prediction Accuracy of Photovoltaic Output

Abstract

The short-term prediction accuracy of Photovoltaic(PV) output may not meet power scheduling requirements, the combined use of photovoltaic generator and energy storage device can improve the prediction accuracy. Storage capacity configuration is an important issue for the economy of PV plant and PV prediction accuracy.In this paper, the distribution character of PV prediction error is analyzed based on the probability density function evolution method. A storage capacity configuration model is built to consider economic prediction accuracy and capacity .A storage device controlling strategy was bulit.Last, a tracking - economic factor is defined which can be used for economic evaluation of the energy storage device. An example is shown that PV prediction error is in normal distribution and the proposed method can improve the prediction accuracy of PV output while increasing the level of economic use of energy storage devices.

DOI : http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/telkomnika.v12i3.3838