Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis applied on commercial tariff with off-peak tariff rider: a case study

Abstract

Commercial Tariff with Off-Peak Tariff Rider (C1 OPTR) is one type of time-based electricity tariff. The C1 OPTR charges electricity consumers with different electricity rates instead of a flat rate tariff. This paper investigates the C1 OPTR tariff adopted recently by Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Pulau Pinang (UiTMCPP) from its previous flat rate tariff. The investigation involves applying the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to the average load factor (ALF) model of the UiTMCPP. The ALF model consists of two major factors, namely kilowatt-hour (kWh) and maximum demand (kW). The analysis aims to identify the most contributing factor between the kWh and kW to the uncertainty of the ALF in a systematic way using Monte Carlo simulation. The factor identified is important for improvement by UiTMCPP to ensure that the suitable target ALF can be easily achieved. Based on Sobol uncertainty and sensitivity analysis technique, 60,000 samples for the respective kWh and kW have been generated and executed to produce the output of the ALF model. The result of the uncertainty analysis shows that the ALF output is uncertain between 0.195 and 0.343. Furthermore, the applied sensitivity analysis discovers that the kW is the most contributing factor to the ALF output uncertainty, with the sensitivity index indicating 0.8853.