Seasonal meat stock demand used comparison of performance smoothing-average forecasting

Abstract

Seasonal patterns significantly influence the demand for beef stock, especially in rural areas that rely on natural feed. Accurate forecasting is essential for managing this demand due to beef's status as a government-regulated nutritional commodity. Food production, consumption, and income levels affect the demand for beef stocks. This research aims to identify the most precise forecasting method for predicting future beef stock needs. We evaluated multiple techniques, including single exponential smoothing (SES), double exponential smoothing (DES), single moving average (SMA), and double moving average (DMA), using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) metric, focusing specifically on beef supplies in Pemalang. The results indicated that the DMA method achieved the highest accuracy with a MAPE value of 5.993% at the 4th -order parameter. Additionally, increasing the data volume improved forecasting accuracy, demonstrating the effectiveness of the DMA method for beef stock prediction.