Trend of the spread of COVID-19 in Indonesia using the machine learning prophet algorithm

Abstract

Based on information on the BNPB website on 2 September 2020, the positive rate for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Indonesia reached 25.25% on 30 August 2020. This is a big challenge for the Indonesian government to reduce the positivity rate to meet the standards safe accepted by World Health Organization (WHO) is 5%. To ensure the accuracy of government policies, accurate data predictions are needed. Therefore, the prophet's machine learning algorithm can be used to see trends in the spread of COVID-19 in the next one year. This algorithm has a fairly high level of accuracy because the data contains time variables which are adjusted to the dataset. In several previous research, the dataset was vast uncertain and small. Meanwhile in this research, data was taken from 2 March 2020 to 12 February 2021 on the KawalCOVID19 website. This data is used to predict from 13 February 2021 to 12 February 2022. There are 3 data used; namely data confirmed, recovered and died. Based on the analysis, the confirmed patient was 22.60-42.11%, died amounted to 21.67%-39.00%, and recovered by 22.53-41.82%. The prediction percentage that the average cases died was 2.43% every day. The accuracy of data confirmed was 43.97%, died was 72.50% and recovered was 84.24%.