A Sales Prediction Model Adopted the Recency-Frequency-Monetary Concept

Abstract

Predicting future sales is intended to control the number of existing stock, so the lack or excess stock can be minimized. When the number of sales can be accurately predicted, then the fulfillment of consumer demand can be prepared in a timely and cooperation with the supplier company can be maintained properly so that the company can avoid losing sales and customers. This study aims to propose a model to predict the sales quantity (multi-products) by adopting the Recency-Frequency-Monetary (RFM) concept and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method. The measurement of sales prediction accuracy in this study using a standard measurement of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), which is the most important criteria in analyzing the accuracy of the prediction. The results indicate that the average MAPE value of the model was high (3.22%), so this model can be referred to as a sales prediction model.