Evaluating machine learning models for precipitation prediction in Casablanca City

Abstract

Accurate precipitation forecasting is a vital task for many domains, such as agriculture, water management, flood prevention, and crop yield estimation. The use of machine learning (ML) approaches has improved precipitation forecasting accuracy, exhibiting promising results in capturing the intricate connections between various meteorological variables and precipitation patterns. However, given the vast array of available ML models, a comparative analysis is imperative for identifying the most effective models for precipitation prediction. This study aims to examine the capacities of ML algorithms to forecast precipitation based on weather data for the city of Casablanca, Morocco, which faces challenges in water management and climate change adaptation. Eight different ML models’ performances are compared: linear regression, polynomial regression, K-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), XGBoost, and an ensemble learning model. These models are evaluated based on their mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and R-squared (R2 ) value to determine their effectiveness. The study showcases the potential of ML models in predicting precipitation by utilizing meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and pressure.