Monte carlo simulation with bilstm for day-ahead stock portfolio management

Zakir Mujeeb Shaikh, Suguna Ramadass


Predicting stock price movement and optimizing day-ahead stock portfolios are challenging tasks due to the inherent complexity and volatility of financial markets. This study proposes a novel approach that combines bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) neural networks with monte carlo simulation (MCS) to enhance day-ahead stock portfolio management. In the proposed methodology, historical data of the top-performing 10 stocks from different sectors of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSEI) is obtained from 1 January 2004 to 30 June 2023 and utilized to train a BiLSTM model. This model effectively extracts intricate patterns and trends from the time series, leading to more accurate and robust stock price predictions. MCS generates different scenarios, considering various market conditions and uncertainties. These scenarios provide a comprehensive view of the portfolio’s performance under different conditions, thus mitigating the risk of relying solely on a single prediction. The study evaluates the proposed framework and compares its performance against traditional portfolio management strategies. Results demonstrate that the MCS with the BiLSTM approach outperforms traditional methods in terms of risk-adjusted returns and portfolio stability.


Bidirectional LSTM; Financial market; Monte carlo simulation; Risk adjustment return; Stock portfolio management

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The Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (IJEECS)
p-ISSN: 2502-4752, e-ISSN: 2502-4760
This journal is published by the Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science (IAES) in collaboration with Intelektual Pustaka Media Utama (IPMU).

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