Simulating the Covid-19 epidemic event and its prevention measures using python programming

Mustofa Abi Hamid, Dimas Aditama, Endi Permata, Nur Kholifah, Muhammad Nurtanto, Nuur Wachid Abdul Majid

Abstract


A simulation is needed to observe and indicate how much preventive measures influence the pandemic flow, controlling and stopping it. This study succeeded in making a stochastic susceptible infected recovered deceased (SIRD) simulation using Python programming language to determine the effectiveness of prevention methods such as masks policy, social distancing, vaccination, quarantine, and lockdown. Every preventive measure is modeled based on an equivalent actual event and every essential aspect that affects the course of the pandemic. A person is represented as a circle moving freely in two-dimensional space, and disease spreads through person-to-person contact. This simulator then tested using parameters to simulate COVID-19 and found significant results between communities that implement preventive measures and those that do not. We found that within 106 days, 284 people were infected, but when five preventive methods are applied for a total of 33 days, only 31 people were infected. Adequate to simulate epidemic events and their prevention measures, this simulator can also be used as a learning tool with factors in epidemic events such as population density, mobility, infection rate, disease mortality, and every effect of each preventive measure. Users can change and influence the simulation course using interactive and straightforward software tools.

Keywords


Covid-19 Prevention; Disease Modeling; Epidemic Forecasting; Python; Susceptible infected recovered deceased;

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DOI: http://doi.org/10.11591/ijeecs.v26.i1.pp278-288

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