Comparative analysis of time series prediction model for forecasting COVID-19 trend

Abstract

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic occurred some time ago, making the world a pandemic. Based on this condition is important to predict early to prevent the COVID-19 disease if someday pandemic occurs. The aim of the study is to compare the analysis result of cumulative cases of COVID-19 using multiple linear regression (MLR), ridge regression (RR), and long short term memory (LSTM) models for cases study Java and Bali islands. We chose both islands as a case study because they have very dense populations. These three models are the most widely used time series-based prediction models and have relatively high accuracy values.  The predictive variables used are the number of cumulative cases, the daily cases, and population density. The research data was taken from Kaggle and processed using google collabs. Data was taken from January 20, 2020, to August 8, 2020, and data training was carried out for 12 days. The results show the accuracy of LSTM is better than other models. it can be seen in the accuracy value (99.8 %) of the model test result. The testing model uses R2, mean square error (MSE), and root mean square error (RMSE).